# Pot Odds & Probability – Texas Holdem Strategy Lesson – Poker

Hey everyone unexceptional rounder here and today I’ve got a video for you about probability, payout and odds, one of the most fundamental concepts in poker. This video will lay the foundation for much more advanced topics in the future. With that said, let’s get started probability ever answered. The weather man say that there’s going to be a 70 percent chance of rain or rain is likely unlikely chance of fair skies chance of clouds. Everything has a chance nothing’s for certain.

*That’S where probability comes into play in the weather, it happens all the time and in poker we use probability to determine winning situations and losing situations. *

Let’S look at some different ways that you can express probability and what it really means probability simply put is the chance that a given event will occur. We look at this weather chart. We see that there are different probabilities expressed as percentages for various wind speeds affecting various parts of the country. This is probability expressed as a percentage.

**There are a lot of other ways to express probability.** Let’S talk about a few of them. Probability can be expressed as odds these odds would read three to one five to four twenty five to seventy five, as we discussed previously, can be expressed as a percentage 25 percent, fifty percent, seventy five percent, etc. Fractions, which may look similar to odds, would be said. One out of four five out of nine 25 out of 100 or five ninths notice that 25 out of 100 means that the event will occur.

Twenty five times out of a total possible 100 opportunities, whereas when we speak of odds 25 to 75 would be the equivalent meaning, it will happen 25 times, and it won’t happen 75 times. The last way of expressing probability that I’ll talk about today is with words impossible, even chance unlikely, likely they’re all ways of expressing probability but they’re, not exact and they’re, not numbers, so we’re going to leave them out of poker for the most part, but feel free To keep using it in everyday conversation, so now we understand probability better. We know that it is the chance, an event will occur and it can be expressed using words, odds, percentages or fractions. Now, let’s go ahead and talk about another concept Payouts. There are different forms of payouts you may have seen payouts on the top of blackjack tables or other casino games. There’S payouts in poker, there’s payouts in poker tournaments, there’s payouts in cash games such as jackpot pokies.

**All a payout really is is how much you win compared to the amount that you bet.** So the payout is how much you get for each bet and again, just like probability payouts can be expressed in a few different ways as well. Let’S talk about a few of them. First, we’ll go over the simple definition: a payout, which is the expected financial return on investment, pretty much what we were talking about before, although blackjack as much an investment. The next one, we’ll discuss is odds notice that we were also able to express probability using odds, interesting, so odds would be expressed as three to one four to three one to five. Now, when we talk about odds and payouts, it’s a little different than odds and probabilities here, we’re looking at the amount we win compared to the amount we bet so you’ll see that I’ve got win to bet here.

So the catchy little saying I came up with was the amount you get to the amount you bet awesome cause it rhymes right. So now take a look at the scorecard for a horse race which I know very little about, but I do know little bit about odds so looking at this card or Pay out or whatever it is, we can see that there’s different payouts for different bets, the Harder, the thing is to predict the more you win predicting the top three gets you a huge payoff of 477.8 to 2 dollars. So that’s pretty pretty good odds, but that has nothing to do with the probability that you actually pick those three numbers right. So that’s where you compare the odds to the probability and you look for mismatch.

**You look for somebody offering you better pay out of odds than you have probability odds when you get a mismatch.** That’S where you make money, that’s how bookies make money! That’S how casinos make money you have to understand this concept to make money playing poker if you were talking about the stock market than your payout would probably be expressed as a percentage. You know here.

Many people talk about the stock market in the form of odds or fractions, usually hear their gains as percentages as well as the losses. So what this shows that, depending on what you’re talking about there, are more appropriate ways to express payouts and probabilities based on what you’re doing the last one I’ll mention really quickly is words again just like probability, you can express odds as words, big medium small. You know you won a 10 bagger which actually relates to a number, which means that your stock went up ten times your original investment or 1000 percent, but again, just like with probability were not really interested in using words in poker like this were going to use Actual numbers, so that covers payouts, as you can see, payouts and probabilities can be expressed in various ways in poker. Payouts are best described only as odds so payout think pot odds, because that’s really your payout in a poker game is what’s in the pot and again remember that catchy saying the amount you get to the amount you bet now. I wan na try to explain why it makes sense to use odds for everything I mean it.

Kinda makes sense intuitively because you don’t want to be mixing percentages, odds fractions when you’re trying to do math in your head at the table. So what we want to do is get on the same page with our payout and our probability, in the form of odds when we talk payout odds, we’ll express it that, as the win amount to the bed amount as in the amount in the pot to the Amount that you have to call or the amount you’re betting, depending on what we’re talking about, if we talk probability, odds it’ll be expressed as will not win to will win, as in the number on the left is going to be the times you don’t win and The number on the right will be the times you do win, this’ll be explained or make sense a little bit more in the future, but for now we’re just going to go with it. These are called odds against.

**You want to match up your odds against to the payout odds.** This example should help you understand it a little bit better using odds for both probability, and payout is a good thing, and this example should show you why it’s so much easier coin toss. What’S the probability of coin landing on heads, I shouldn’t have to say this, but I’m going to the answer’s, not fifty percent, because we don’t talk about percentages when we talk about odds.

So what is the probability of a coin landing on heads got your answer. Alright? If you said the odds of landing on heads are one to one than you’re correct. Now, if we look at one to one, the first one is the times that won’t happen or the times that it comes up tales and the second one is the times that comes up heads. So the will knots to the Wills are one to one now. Taking this problem one step further, we can ask what odds are needed for a profitable bet, as in what pot size do you need to make money on a one dollar bet, since there are no half pennies we’ll round to the nearest one cent for a one Dollar bet getting 1:1 odds to make money.

You need the pot to be at least a dollar and one cent a dollar and a penny anything less than that and you’re not going to make any money to you. Take this one step further, which I didn’t really plan on getting to in this video, but is important: the higher the pot size, the more money you make as in the bigger edge you have on that bed, if there’s a dollar and ten cents in the pot, You now have a 10 percent edge because you’re actually making 10 percent more than the break-even amount little bit more than we need to go in this video by it’s worth mentioning, and I hope that this example really clears up. Why it’s so much easier to use odds when talking about probability and payouts everything lines up nicely and you can quickly determine if the situation you’re in is profitable or not based on your probability based on your payout and then make the correct play. I hope that example helps. You understand probability in payouts better.

**It shows you why we use odds to compare them at the table for easy in your head calculations, when you don’t have a lot of time.** So what’s next we’re not done yet. We’Ve got a lot left to learn, we know probability and payouts. We still have yet to learn about hand, combinations, calculating draws, calculating equity and, of course, expected value, which is essentially what you can use to determine the correct play in any poker situation, so stay tuned.

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